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Comment la thèse des « deux jambes » sur les causes de l’évolution du climat a été éliminée
Retour sur des anciens documents de l’Organisation Météologique mondiale
vendredi 19 janvier 2024, par
Il y a un fossé actuellement entre les conclusions des COP sur le climat, qui attribuent son évolution à l’augmentation du taux de gaz à effet de serre dans l’atmosphère, et d’autres voix, comme celle de l’hydrologue Emma Haziza qui met en avant les atteintes au cycle de l’eau pour expliquer des évènements climatiques récents.
Pourtant, dans les années 70, un concept totalement différent a été porté par l’Organisation Météorologique Mondiale, celui des "deux jambes" de l’évolution du climat : l’occupation des sols et le cycle de l’eau au niveau local, le réchauffement dû aux gaz à effet de serre au niveau global.
La première explication, environnementale, été éliminée au début des années 80, et il serait temps de revenir à la thèse des deux origines, l’une locale, l’autre globale, à l’évolution du climat.
La compréhension de l’influence de la couverture des sols et de l’eau sur le climat n’est pas nouvelle, elle a existé aux débuts de la réflexion sur le climat.
Il faut revenir à l’itinéraire et aux travaux du docteur Millán M. Millán, directeur du Centre pour l’Environnement Méditerranéen, titulaire de nombreux diplômes, conseiller auprès de la Commission Européenne et de l’U.E.. Décédé le 12 janvier 2024, il était le plus ancien des scientifiques à se rappeler d’une époque où la science climatique avait une vision du climat à « deux jambes », une pour le CO2 et l’effet de serre, et une autre pour la couverture du sol et le cycle de l’eau
(1).
Il avait notamment collaboré avec Ted Munn, professeur à l’université de Toronto et figure importante de l’Organisation Météorologique Mondiale sur un chapitre qu’il écrivait pour un livre du MIT(2)et de l’Académie royale suédoise « Modification Involontaire du Climat, Étude sur les impacts de l’homme sur le climat ».
Ce travail a cristallisé son concept des « deux jambes » au changement climatique : on y trouve de manière à peu près égale la « contamination atmosphérique » avec les gaz à effet de serre, et « l’altération de la surface terrestre » avec le chapitre de Munn sur les « effets climatiques des changements de surface dus à l’homme »
"L’idée était que les gaz à effet de serre et l’utilisation des sols contribuent tous deux au changement climatique, mais à des rythmes différents", écrit M. Millán. "L’utilisation des sols modifie immédiatement le cycle hydrologique... Les gaz à effet de serre sont déjà présents", ce qui signifie qu’ils se répandent à l’échelle mondiale et ne changent pas d’un jour à l’autre. Il parle de "deux taux d’interaction climatique et de deux mécanismes de base".
À partir de 1992, il a travaillé sur la disparition des orages d’été d’après-midi qui se produisaient auparavant en région méditerranéenne en faisant le lien avec "Les perturbations de l’utilisation des sols (exploitation minière, expansion industrielle, déforestation, bitumage) qui se sont accumulées au cours de l’histoire et se sont fortement accélérées au cours des 30 dernières années"
Son travail a été publié en 1995 dans le Journal of Climate de l’American Meteological Association, et a été salué par le lauréat du prix Nobel Paul Crutzen comme la découverte la plus importante depuis vingt ans en matière de changement climatique… pour être ignoré par le courant dominant de la climatologie, qui s’étaient centré sur les modélisations informatiques basées sur le CO2. Millán a dit que son travail était « incommodant » pour la science du climat, les modèles informatiques mondiaux ne pouvant percevoir les processus locaux, au niveau des terres, qu’il avait analysés.
Beaucoup refusaient de croire ce qu’il disait, car leurs modèles n’en rendaient pas compte.
Les choses ont ensuite empiré, mais il a toutefois été invité par le GIEC à contribuer à son troisième rapport d’évaluation, prévu pour 2002. Il s’est heurté au même conflit, et les modélisateurs « remettaient en question tous les résultats [qu’il présentait] ». Après une période sans fin d’argumentation et de production de rapports, Millán a quitté le GIEC.
Les politiciens préféraient ce que disaient les modélisateurs à ce que disait Millán, qui pouvait leur dire que des aménagements de terrain, pour une école ou une usine, endommageaient le climat. Le langage des modélisateurs qui présentaient un problème global pour lequel ils n’avaient pas de responsabilité particulière leur convenait mieux, surtout avec la solution proposée, l’énergie « verte » qui leur permettrait de continuer à promouvoir un développement, coloré en vert.
Rob Lewis, a retracé cette histoire dans le document que j’ai cité ici, et dont j’ai copié la traduction à la fin. Après avoir entendu Millán pour la première fois en 2017, il a cherché à comprendre. Il s’est procuré le rapport du MIT, où il a retrouvé la compréhension du climat par les deux causes. En lisant les différents rapports de l’époque, il a compris comment le changement climatique au niveau local avait été exclu du débat climatique, qui n’a gardé que les phénomènes globaux et le réchauffement.
Le texte de Rob Lewis est fondamental sur le débat à propos du changement climatique en lien avec le cycle de l’eau et du réchauffement lié à la concentration de gaz à effet de serre. Il permet de comprendre pourquoi la théorie des « deux jambes » qui était à l’origine la thèse défendue par l’Organisation Météorologique Mondiale a été occultée puis a été écartée de fait.
Il explique pourquoi la thèse sur les gaz à effet de serre convenait mieux aux politiciens que celle des « 2 jambes », et comment l’organisme fondé pour travailler dessus a reçu dix fois moins de financement que le GIEC, avant de disparaître.
Il manque un élément essentiel dans le texte de Rob Lewis : c’est le sommet de Rio qui a tranché en mai 1992 pour le rôle exclusif des gaz à effet de serre, en adoptant la Convention-Cadre sur les Changements Climatiquesqui fixe l’objectif de stabiliser « les concentrations de gaz à effet de serre dans l’atmosphère à un niveau qui empêche toute perturbation anthropique dangereuse du système climatique ». Il n’y avait plus qu’une seule cause reconnue au changement climatique, et le concept des « deux jambes » qui mettait en avant deux causes allait être bel et bien enterré. Cela a été le cas ensuite dans toutes les COP.
Outre la chronologie, les passages du texte de Rob Lewis sur l’évolution du climat en Espagne et la disparition des orages d’été, ainsi que la partie sur la désertification du Sahara sont absolument excellents, et permettent de comprendre le rôle essentiel de la vie pour la climat.
Il devient de plus en plus clair aujourd’hui que c’est cette approche qui était pertinente car elle prenait en compte les « deux jambes » de l’évolution du climat, avec d’une part le changement climatique au niveau local et le cycle de l’eau et de l’autre le réchauffement climatiqueet les phénomènes globaux avec l’accroissement des concentrations de gaz à effet de serre.
Il est temps de revenir au travail de Millán et de Munn, à un moment où les témoignages et les études sur le rôle du cycle de l’eau dans le changement climatique se multiplient.
Cela a des conséquences : même s’il faut évidemment diminuer le recours aux énergies fossiles, la sauvegarde des milieux naturels, en particulier des forêts, devient une priorité absolue : il est aussi absurde de couper des forêts pour planter des palmiers à huile en Indonésie que de couper des forêts pour installer des panneaux photovoltaïques, comme c’est prévu en France sur la Montagne de Lure. Les priorités deviennent celles décrites dans l’excellent texte du Programme des Nations Unies pour l’Environnement, "travailler avec les plantes, les sols et l’eau pour refroidir le climat et hydrater les paysages de la Terre". "La végétation, les sols fertiles et la rétention d‘eau doivent être reconnus comme les principaux régulateurs des cycles de l‘eau, de l‘énergie et du carbone. [...] Les régions forestières particulièrement importantes et sensibles doivent être protégées et gérées en conséquence.
• Il est de la plus haute importance d‘arrêter la déforestation et d‘accroître les efforts de reboisement dans le monde entier.
• Les pratiques agricoles devraient se concentrer sur la régénération des sols, la couverture végétale du
sol tout au long de l‘année et l‘utilisation de méthodes agroforestières".
La restauration des cycles de la vie, en particulier dans les sols agricoles permet du stockage de carbone dans le sol, ce qui pose autrement, par exemple, la nécessité d’arrêter les véhicules thermiques et de passer aux véhicules électriques, ou de construire de nouvelles centrales nucléaires.
Texte de Rob Lewis « Millán-Millán et le mystère des tempêtes méditerranéennes disparues »
paru le 17 juillet 2023 dans resilience.org, traduction de Valérie Valette, réalisatrice de films, dont le dernier, Dobra Voda, porte sur la restauration du climat à partir de la restauration du cycle de l’eau.
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2023-07-17/millan-millan-and-the-mystery-of-the-missing-mediterranean-storms/
Millan Millan et le mystère des tempêtes méditerranéennes disparues
By Rob Lewis, originally published by Resilence.org
July 17, 2023
Note éditoriale : En raison d’une confusion éditoriale, cet article a été initialement publié comme la première partie d’une série de trois articles. Il s’agit plutôt de l’article complet.
Traduction : Valérie Valette - Valliance Prod.
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLjanxrq5zH6lJF6E8f4aD8NnCSxWkxsiV
Voir la dernière version « changement climatique : l’explication qui manque »
Le Dr Millan, directeur du Centre pour l’Environnement Méditerranéen, diplômé en mécanique des fluides, génie industriel, sciences aérospatiales, physique atmosphérique et spectroscopie, météorologie synoptique et prévisions météorologiques, conseiller auprès de la Commission Européenne et de l’U.E. allait en effet comprendre pourquoi les orages d’été n’étaient pas au rendez-vous. "Les perturbations de l’utilisation des sols (exploitation minière, expansion industrielle, déforestation, bitumage) qui se sont accumulées au cours de l’histoire et se sont fortement accélérées au cours des 30 dernières années" ont rendu les terres incapables de soutenir le climat de la région. Les orages disparaissaient parce que la terre disparaissait, a montré M. Millan, ce qui a des conséquences considérables sur notre compréhension des causes humaines du changement climatique et sur la manière dont nous devrions y répondre.
Bien que salué par le lauréat du prix Nobel Paul Crutzen comme la découverte la plus importante en matière de changement climatique depuis vingt ans et publié dans le Journal of Climate de l’American Meteorological Association, entre autres, son travail a été effectivement ignoré par le courant dominant de la science climatique, s’avérant, comme l’a dit Millan, "incommodant". Les modèles informatiques mondiaux axés sur le CO2, qui ont fini par dominer la science du climat, ne pouvaient pas percevoir les processus locaux, au niveau des terres, mis en évidence par Millan.
Millan n’est pas le seul scientifique à alerter sur le rôle de la « modification des terres » comme cause humaine du changement climatique, mais, à 82 ans, c’est le plus ancien des scientifiques à pouvoir se souvenir d’une époque où la science avait ce qu’il appelle une vision "à deux jambes" du climat : une jambe pour le carbone atmosphérique et l’effet de serre, et une jambe pour les perturbations terrestres et les effets hydrologiques (les cycles de l’eau).
Le garçon, dont le père lui a indiqué son destin et qui l’a accompli avec brio, se sent néanmoins vaincu. "J’ai échoué, pour nous tous", m’a-t-il écrit un jour. Et en effet, le récit actuel sur le climat laisse complètement de côté le travail de Millan. Mais je ne pense pas que l’histoire soit terminée. La roue de la science se rapproche de la compréhension de Millan, au lieu de s’en éloigner, et les arguments scientifiques en faveur d’une vision bipède du climat ne cessent de s’étoffer. En fait, c’est le moment idéal pour raconter son histoire.
M. Millan ne cherchait pas à résoudre le mystère de la disparition des orages d’été dans le bassin méditerranéen occidental. Comme c’est souvent le cas dans son histoire, les faits marquants sont le fruit du hasard.
En 1966, les universités espagnoles étaient en proie à des manifestations étudiantes et il voulait se concentrer sur ses études. C’est ainsi qu’à l’âge de 24 ans, il est parti pour le Canada afin de poursuivre ses études supérieures à l’université de Toronto. Dans l’attente des approbations universitaires, il cherche un emploi et le trouve rapidement auprès d’une société canadienne appelée Barringer Research Limited. Il s’y distingue très tôt en affinant la technologie qui équipera les détecteurs de métaux des aéroports du monde entier, ce dont il s’excuse aujourd’hui en plaisantant. Mais c’est un autre instrument, appelé COSPEC, qui l’a conduit à des découvertes scientifiques et professionnelles essentielles et à un éventuel retour en Espagne.
Son instrument, toujours utilisé, permet aux scientifiques de cartographier les panaches de polluants qui se déplacent dans l’atmosphère, ce qui est devenu indispensable lorsque l’industrialisation rapide a commencé à asphyxier les villes avec la pollution. M. Millan a estimé qu’il pouvait améliorer l’application de son instrument en approfondissant ses connaissances en météorologie, notamment en ce qui concerne la façon dont les surfaces terrestres affectent les flux d’air, d’humidité et de chaleur, pour laquelle Ted Munn, professeur à l’université, était réputé. Munn était une figure importante de l’Organisation Météorologique Mondiale et un expert dans un domaine appelé biométéorologie, qui examine non seulement les effets du climat sur les systèmes vivants, mais aussi les effets des systèmes vivants sur le climat. L’accent est mis sur la couche la plus basse de l’atmosphère, appelée "couche limite", la couche en contact avec la surface de la Terre et directement affectée par elle. M. Munn a fondé et dirigé pendant vingt ans la revue scientifique Boundary Layer Meteorology. Ses livres Descriptive Micrometeorology (1964) et Biometeorological Methods (1970) sont des classiques dans ce domaine.
La célébrité de Munn tient en partie aux compétences remarquables dont il a fait preuve pendant la Seconde Guerre mondiale, en établissant des prévisions météorologiques pour les forces alliées depuis l’île de Terre-Neuve, sans jamais perdre un avion ou un navire. Millan suppose qu’il avait abandonné les systèmes à grande échelle avec lesquels il travaillait pendant la Seconde Guerre mondiale pour découvrir comment ces grands processus météorologiques étaient pilotés « de la surface vers le haut ». Il s’agit là d’un point essentiel. Le changement climatique est généralement présenté comme une flèche de causalité orientée vers le bas, de l’atmosphère vers le bas, la terre agissant comme un récepteur passif du changement climatique. Mais la flèche pointe également vers le haut, à partir de la terre, qui se comporte non seulement comme un récepteur du climat, mais aussi comme un moteur du climat.
Munn remarque rapidement son nouvel élève qui semble déjà posséder une compréhension intuitive de la matière enseignée. "Il me donnait les explications scientifiques des observations de mon père", écrit Millan. De son côté, Millan, qui aime également les activités de plein air, était ravi de pouvoir sortir ses talents du laboratoire pour les mettre au service de la nature où, comme pour Munn, la météorologie prenait vie pour lui. Ils sont rapidement devenus des collègues et des amis dans le cadre d’un "tutorat et d’une coopération" qui durent depuis 45 ans.
En 1969, Millan s’est engagé à fond dans ses études, s’attelant à un programme d’études que Munn avait conçu pour lui, tout en suivant les cours de biométéorologie de Munn. Un jour, Munn lui a remis le projet d’un livre intitulé Inadvertent Climate Modification : Study of Man’s Impact on Climate, une production conjointe du MIT et de l’Académie royale suédoise des sciences. Il s’agit de la première évaluation scientifique d’envergure du changement climatique anthropique à l’ère du climat moderne, et Munn est l’auteur coordinateur d’un chapitre intitulé "Climatic Effects of Man-made Surface Change" (Effets climatiques du changement de surface provoqué par l’homme).
Il a demandé à Millan de vérifier les concordances entre le texte, les références et les données, une tâche qui a cristallisé le concept des deux jambes pour Millan, car il était clairement exposé dans le livre. Le premier paragraphe, par exemple, énumère les "effets climatiques des changements de surface provoqués par l’homme" et la "modification de la troposphère et de la stratosphère" comme des "domaines majeurs" à prendre en considération. Sous le titre "Activités humaines influençant le climat", les sous-sections relatives à la "contamination atmosphérique" et à l’"altération de la surface terrestre" sont traitées de manière à peu près égale. Sous le titre "Principales conclusions et recommandations", on trouve le chapitre de Munn intitulé "Effets climatiques des changements de surface dus à l’homme", ainsi que les chapitres concernant les gaz à effet de serre dans l’atmosphère.
"L’idée était que les gaz à effet de serre et l’utilisation des sols contribuent tous deux au changement climatique, mais à des rythmes différents", écrit M. Millan. "L’utilisation des sols modifie immédiatement le cycle hydrologique, à petite ou grande échelle, en fonction de la perturbation. Les gaz à effet de serre sont déjà présents", ce qui signifie qu’ils se répandent à l’échelle mondiale et ne changent pas d’un jour à l’autre. Il parle de "deux taux d’interaction climatique et de deux mécanismes de base".
En ce qui concerne la modification des terres, le mécanisme est hydrologique, c’est le cycle de l’eau ; il fonctionne rapidement, à des échelles locales et régionales. Si vous coupez une forêt à blanc, vous détruisez immédiatement le cycle de l’eau à cet endroit, et avec lui le mécanisme de refroidissement de la forêt. La vapeur d’eau (ainsi que le carbone) commence à brûler hors du sol et, en quelques heures, la température peut augmenter de plus de 20oC.
En ce qui concerne les gaz à effet de serre, le mécanisme est la propagation et l’augmentation à l’échelle mondiale des gaz qui absorbent le rayonnement sortant des ondes longues, l’effet de serre qui ne cesse de réchauffer la planète. Il s’agit d’un processus lent ; la personne qui transpire dans la coupe à blanc ne le sentira pas, mais il est implacable. La concentration des gaz ne cesse d’augmenter, soumettant la planète entière à des changements d’une ampleur géologique difficiles à envisager.
Le fait est que ce n’est pas l’une ou l’autre des causes, mais les deux à la fois. "Les deux jambes ne sont qu’un concept qui implique une composante atmosphérique (gaz à effet de serre) et une composante de surface (changement climatique). Un concept qui, écrit-il dans son livre, "est resté dans mon esprit pendant des années, me revenant vingt ans plus tard lorsqu’on m’a demandé d’étudier le déclin constaté des orages d’été autour du bassin méditerranéen occidental".
La demande pour l’instrument de Millan est toujours plus forte et, en 1974, des fonctionnaires de la Commission européenne (CE), organe opérationnel de l’Union européenne, lui demandent son expertise pour les aider à suivre en Espagne la propagation des polluants industriels sur la côte sud, qui s’industrialise rapidement. Il ne tarde pas à accepter, et il est bientôt de retour chez lui, à quelques vallées de là où son père et lui avaient fait du trekking. C’est en installant des instruments de terrain dans le maquis qu’il a commencé à entendre parler des orages d’été. Les habitants de la région venaient lui faire des commentaires du genre "ce que vous essayez de faire a l’air intéressant, mais le vrai problème ici, c’est qu’il ne pleut plus autant qu’avant". Se souvenant du conseil de Munn de traiter les observations des habitants comme des données de terrain essentielles, il prenait toujours des notes minutieuses, qui s’avéreraient par la suite inestimables. Mais à l’époque, il s’occupait de pollution atmosphérique, et non de climat, et il ne pouvait donc pas faire grand-chose d’autre que d’évoquer ces observations lors de réunions avec des fonctionnaires de haut rang.
Finalement, en 1992, la question a attiré l’attention du chef d’unité pour l’environnement de la Commission européenne, le Dr Heinrich Ott. M. Millan était alors directeur du CEAM, le Centre méditerranéen d’études environnementales, un grand organisme de recherche scientifique. Lors d’une réunion portant sur des questions générales, les orages d’été ont été évoqués et M. Ott a demandé à M. Millan d’appliquer au problème les notes et les données qu’il avait recueillies sur le terrain pendant près de vingt ans. C’est ainsi que Millan est passé de directeur scientifique à détective scientifique.
Millan est un scientifique très technique et pratique, imprégné de physique et doté d’un esprit d’ingénieur. Pourtant, il se fait poète lorsqu’il décrit comment le sol, l’eau et les plantes travaillent ensemble pour recycler l’eau, en employant le tercet : l’eau engendre l’eau, le sol est la matrice, la végétation est la sage-femme.
Ce qu’il entend par "l’eau engendre l’eau", c’est que les paysages sains semblent cultiver l’eau. Bien sûr, l’eau ne peut pas être créée. Il y en a une quantité déterminée sur terre, et bien que nous pensions qu’elle est répartie entre les océans, les lacs, les rivières et les glaciers, elle se trouve également à l’intérieur des êtres vivants. Les humains sont constitués à 60 % d’eau, les oiseaux à 75 %, les poissons entre 70 et 84 %. Un chat typique pèse 67 %, tandis que les plantes et les arbres sont presque entièrement constitués d’eau, entre 80 et 90 %. La quantité d’eau qu’un territoire peut contenir est donc proportionnelle à la quantité de vie présente dans le paysage et le sol, et sa capacité à retenir l’eau qui arrive par des impulsions périodiques venues des principales masses d’eau, comme les océans et les lacs, par l’intermédiaire des courants atmosphériques. Cette eau, une fois retenue, est retranspirée par la végétation dans l’atmosphère sous forme de vapeur pour former les nuages et les futures pluies. Ainsi, la même eau est recyclée à l’infini, de haut en bas, à travers les paysages.
Alors que l’on pensait autrefois que la quasi-totalité des eaux intérieures provenait des grandes masses d’eau et des circulations atmosphériques, on s’aperçoit aujourd’hui que 40 à 60 % de la plupart des pluies proviennent de ce recyclage, et que ce pourcentage augmente au fur et à mesure que l’on s’éloigne de l’intérieur des terres. C’est ce qu’on appelle le petit cycle de l’eau, et dans certains endroits, comme l’Amazonie, il est à l’origine de 80 % des pluies. Plus il y a de vie dans un territoire, plus il peut "extraire" d’eau des flux océaniques. C’est un cercle qui s’amplifie de lui-même : l’eau, à travers la vie, engendre plus d’eau, engendre encore plus de vie, recueille encore plus d’eau, et ainsi de suite, le résultat étant un refroidissement et une modération accrus du climat.
Le sol est la matrice parce qu’il contient l’eau. Mais là encore, c’est la vie qui retient l’eau, la riche communauté microbienne souterraine qui fait la différence entre une terre compacte et imperméable et un sol absorbant et grumeleux. Imaginez le sol comme une éponge, un ensemble maintenu mais rempli de minuscules cavités. Cette matrice contient des grains de sable, de l’argile et des minéraux, mais ce qui les lie en une éponge, c’est la vie, une pléthore stupéfiante d’éléments invisibles et presque invisibles : protistes et bactéries, nématodes et acariens du sol, et jusqu’à huit mille par pouce carré d’hyphes fongiques.
Ce sont leurs exsudats et leurs corps en décomposition qui non seulement collent les particules entre elles, mais les maintiennent séparées, faisant ainsi de la place à l’eau, si essentielle à toute vie. Lorsque tout cela fonctionne ensemble, une boucle de rétroaction très fortuite apparaît : plus il y a de carbone dans le sol, plus il peut contenir d’eau. Plus il y a d’eau dans le sol, plus la végétation peut pousser. Plus la végétation pousse, plus elle nourrit le ciel d’humidité et plus elle absorbe de carbone dans la vie et le sol. C’est un cycle vertueux, qui "engendre" l’eau et séquestre le carbone, invisible et souterrain, comme une matrice.
La végétation est la sage-femme, car elle envoie l’eau dans l’atmosphère sous forme de vapeur, où elle s’élève, se condense et retombe sous forme de pluie. Mais la végétation ne se contente pas d’envoyer de la vapeur d’eau, elle fournit également les graines des futures gouttes de pluie, appelées noyaux de condensation des nuages. Il s’agit de grains microscopiques de divers biotes, tels que des bactéries, des spores fongiques et des vapeurs libérées, qui ont tous un seuil de congélation particulièrement bas, ce qui accélère la condensation de la vapeur en eau et son retour ultérieur sur la terre sous forme de pluie. La végétation qui fait monter l’eau la fait également redescendre dans un autre cycle vertueux qui s’amplifie de lui-même.
Vous avez sans doute remarqué que l’eau occupe une place importante dans cette analyse. En effet, du point de vue du climat, l’eau est un élément essentiel. D’une part, elle possède la capacité calorifique la plus élevée de toutes les substances terrestres courantes et peut donc déplacer d’énormes quantités de chaleur. C’est la raison pour laquelle les courants océaniques sont si importants pour le climat mondial. Les océans ont absorbé d’énormes quantités de chaleur et les déplacent à présent, ce qui a pour effet d’amplifier les tempêtes et les sécheresses. Mais comme nous l’avons déjà mentionné, l’eau possède également une autre capacité : celle de changer de phase, de passer de l’eau à la vapeur et inversement, en échangeant de la chaleur à chaque étape.
Voici comment cela fonctionne. Lorsque l’eau passe de l’état liquide à l’état de vapeur (évaporation), il se produit un refroidissement, semblable à celui que nous ressentons lorsque nous transpirons sous l’effet de la brise. En effet, le changement de phase entre l’eau et la vapeur utilise de la chaleur, en la puisant dans l’environnement, ce qui se traduit par un refroidissement. La chaleur nécessaire pour transformer l’eau liquide en vapeur gazeuse, soit 540 calories par gramme d’eau, pénètre dans la vapeur sous la forme d’un potentiel chimique appelé chaleur latente, comme un ressort que l’on tire en arrière. Lorsque la vapeur s’élève et se condense en liquide, l’équation s’inverse, le ressort remonte et la même chaleur est libérée, mais plus haut dans l’atmosphère. Bien que la majeure partie de cette chaleur revienne sur terre à des kilomètres, voire des milliers de kilomètres, une partie s’échappe.
Les scientifiques utilisent le terme de transpiration pour désigner cette capacité des plantes à transformer l’eau en vapeur, mais on peut également considérer qu’il s’agit d’une sorte de transpiration. Le vert étant une couleur sombre, l’arbre ou la plante n’absorbe pas seulement la lumière du soleil pour la photosynthèse, mais aussi une bonne partie de la chaleur. Pour se débarrasser de cette chaleur, il transpire. Sous chaque feuille et chaque aiguille se trouvent des milliers de pores microscopiques appelés stomates, qui libèrent de l’humidité pendant la journée, ce qui permet à la plante ou à l’arbre et à son environnement de rester au frais. Ce processus nécessite d’énormes volumes d’eau : 100 litres par jour pour un arbre typique. L’évaporation d’un gramme d’eau nécessite 540 calories. À raison de 100 litres par jour pour un arbre typique, cela équivaut à un refroidissement de 54 000 kcal, soit deux climatiseurs d’hôtel fonctionnant toute la journée. Ajoutez à cela le refroidissement par évaporation des sols et vous aurez une idée de la puissance d’une forêt ou d’un bois pour refroidir son environnement.
En gardant le terme de Millan à l’esprit, examinons ce qui s’est passé dans le bassin méditerranéen occidental, cette partie de la Méditerranée à l’ouest de l’Italie, en particulier la région autour du sud-est de l’Espagne, où nous, les humains, avons changé les choses depuis un certain temps.
Le bassin méditerranéen occidental était autrefois luxuriant, avec de vastes forêts de chênes, des sources et de vastes marais côtiers. Les premiers Romains disaient qu’un écureuil pouvait voyager des Pyrénées au détroit de Gibraltar, sans jamais toucher le sol. Il y a deux mille ans, cette situation a commencé à changer sérieusement avec l’expansion constante de l’Empire romain. Les marais ont été asséchés, d’abord pour lutter contre la malaria endémique, puis pour l’agriculture, avec une déforestation généralisée et l’exploitation minière dans les montagnes.
Au XVIe siècle, la plupart des forêts de chênes ont été coupées et l’agriculture de plaine s’est répandue plus haut dans les montagnes, en même temps que le pâturage et d’autres défrichements. Puis vint la révolution industrielle, suivie de la modernité. Dans les années 1950, l’urbanisation de masse a encore grignoté des terres au fur et à mesure que l’Espagne s’industrialisait. L’essor de l’industrie touristique a été particulièrement dévastateur pour les marais côtiers de l’Espagne, recouvrant de parkings et d’hôtels des maillons essentiels du cycle de l’eau. Puis, au début des années 1970, en raison des troubles au Moyen-Orient, les infrastructures pétrolières ont été déplacées du Moyen-Orient vers les côtes de l’Espagne, de la France et de l’Italie, ce qui a entraîné une "industrialisation intense des côtes".
Millan a été confronté à un système hydrologique à l’échelle du bassin en phase finale d’effondrement. Les sages-femmes n’avaient pas seulement été coupées, mais le régime climatologique qui permettait aux chênes d’autrefois de vivre était détruit depuis longtemps. Il a été remplacé par un climat beaucoup plus sec, favorisant principalement le pin et le maquis. Le sol a été en grande partie érodé, s’étendant par endroits sur de la pierre nue. La province voisine d’Almeria offre un exemple classique de la façon dont les choses peuvent mal tourner. Dans les années 1850, ses denses forêts de chênes ont été coupées à blanc pour alimenter les fours des fonderies de plomb. Son effondrement en désert a été si profond que la région est devenue un lieu de tournage pour les westerns spaghetti. M. Millan en est venu à penser que l’ensemble du bassin méditerranéen occidental se trouve à un même point de basculement, en passe de devenir un désert de type Almeria, sur lequel il est très difficile de revenir. "Une fois que l’on a atteint la roche, dit-il, c’est fini ».
Se souvenant du conseil de Munn d’écouter attentivement les observations des habitants, il s’est souvenu d’un jour où un vieil homme lui avait parlé d’un dicton local : "Cierzo a las siete, Solano a las diez, agua a las tres". En gros, la brise de mer le matin à dix heures, la pluie l’après-midi à trois heures. Il pensa aux traces des nuages qu’il avait observés dans son enfance, se déplaçant de plus en plus haut dans les montagnes, gagnant en masse, laissant tomber la pluie dans l’après-midi. Le refrain était révélateur. En effet, les brises de mer arrivaient encore chaque matin vers dix heures, mais l’après-midi, vers trois heures, les averses ne se matérialisaient pas. Il en conclut que le problème s’est produit entre les deux.
En utilisant les données météorologiques traditionnelles, il a découvert un détail important. Lorsque les vents du matin se sont levés, leur teneur en eau était de 14 grammes par mètre cube d’air, ce qui n’est pas suffisant pour former des nuages qui, dans ces conditions spécifiques, nécessiteraient un taux d’humidité de 21 grammes d’eau par mètre cube. Le reste de l’humidité, soit 7 grammes par mètre cube, doit provenir d’ailleurs, ce qui nous ramène à la terre.
Il fut un temps où cette même brise de mer passait au-dessus de vastes zones humides côtières s’étendant sur des kilomètres à l’intérieur des terres, recueillant la vapeur d’eau qui s’en dégageait. Puis, en se dirigeant vers les montagnes, elle gagnait encore plus d’humidité grâce aux grands chênes, chacun étant un château d’eau à lui seul. Au moment où il gravissait les dernières crêtes, il était saturé non seulement d’humidité, mais aussi de noyaux de condensation des nuages. On peut imaginer les têtes d’orage s’élever, les panaches empilés s’élevant à trois kilomètres dans les airs, l’orage de l’après-midi pratiquement garanti, laissant tomber la pluie froide sur la terre, réhydratant la végétation, rechargeant les aquifères et les marais, et libérant leur chaleur latente pour se dissiper en altitude au-dessus des montagnes.
Mais aujourd’hui, au lieu des marais et des chênes, la brise marine rencontre le béton, l’acier et le verre. Non seulement elle est privée de l’humidité dont elle a besoin pour former des averses, mais elle est aussi balayée par la chaleur qui s’élève des matériaux fabriqués par l’homme, gagnant 16oC avant d’atteindre les montagnes. Ce qui atteint finalement les collines est constitué d’arbustes et de pignons épars, vestiges squelettiques des anciennes forêts de chênes. Non seulement il n’y a pas assez de vie évaporative pour fournir les 7 grammes d’eau par mètre cube d’air manquants pour former le nuage de pluie, mais le réchauffement intense de la masse d’air signifie qu’elle a besoin d’encore plus d’humidité pour le faire. Aujourd’hui, quelques nuages se rassemblent en fin d’après-midi, s’élèvent, s’étendent, puis s’évanouissent. L’air chaud, humide et désormais pollué, au lieu de libérer la chaleur qu’il a accumulée et de laisser tomber de la pluie sur les terres pour reconstituer le système, repart simplement au-dessus de la mer Méditerranée.
Cela explique en gros la disparition des orages d’été, mais le processus ne s’arrête pas là. Les couches d’air humide et pollué s’accumulent au-dessus de la mer Méditerranée, couche après couche, jour après jour, trois à cinq jours d’affilée. Ces couches, chargées de puissants gaz à effet de serre tels que la vapeur d’eau et l’ozone, réchauffent progressivement la mer, de sorte qu’à la fin de l’été, la mer réchauffée commence à alimenter les tempêtes côtières, ainsi que les trajectoires des tempêtes qui descendent au-dessus de la Méditerranée en remontant vers l’Europe centrale. Ces trajectoires de tempêtes rassemblent les couches chaudes et humides et deviennent elles aussi suralimentées, contribuant ainsi aux inondations dévastatrices en Europe de l’Est.
Où sont passés les orages d’été ? Ils sont partis avec les forêts, les sols et les zones humides. Pourquoi les tempêtes côtières s’aggravent-elles ? En partie à cause d’une mer réchauffée par les effets hydrologiques des forêts, des sols et des zones humides en ruine. D’où viennent les pluies torrentielles qui s’abattent sur l’Europe centrale ? En partie de l’humidité accumulée au-dessus de la Méditerranée qui aurait dû se déverser sous forme de pluie sur les montagnes de l’intérieur. Que faire ? Premièrement, arrêter de détruire les forêts, les sols et les zones humides. Deuxièmement, commencer à restaurer les forêts, les sols et les zones humides. Ou, comme le dit Millan avec beaucoup d’imagination, commencer à "cultiver les tempêtes".
En 1995, Millan a terminé son analyse et a commencé à publier son travail et à faire des présentations. L’époque était grisante. Le lauréat du prix Nobel Paul Crutzen aurait considéré qu’il s’agissait de la science climatique la plus importante des vingt dernières années. Son mentor, Ted Munn, a parlé de son utilisation des cartes météorologiques traditionnelles comme d’une preuve, d’un "pistolet fumant". Des fonctionnaires de haut niveau de la Commission européenne ont également été enthousiasmés et lui ont rapidement demandé de contribuer aux chapitres de leurs rapports sur le climat expliquant comment les modèles climatiques ne tenaient pas compte des effets terrestres et de parler à la communauté des modélisateurs des problèmes posés par leurs modèles. Mais c’est là que les problèmes ont commencé. Les modélisateurs n’ont pas apprécié ses explications sur les erreurs de leurs modèles. Beaucoup refusaient tout simplement de croire ce qu’il leur disait, leur argument étant essentiellement que leurs modèles ne voyaient pas ce que ses recherches révélaient et que, par conséquent, cela n’existait pas. Ces missions n’étaient pas très agréables pour lui, et les choses allaient empirer.
Il a rapidement été invité par le GIEC à contribuer à son troisième rapport d’évaluation, dont la publication est prévue pour 2002. Mais il s’est heurté au même conflit. Les modélisateurs "remettaient en question tous les résultats que nous présentions", a-t-il déclaré, décrivant une période d’argumentation et de production de rapports sans fin, dont il s’est finalement impatienté, quittant le GIEC. "J’avais 80 bouches à nourrir au CEAM et pas le temps de discuter", se souvient-il.
L’environnement politique n’a pas aidé. Les politiciens préféraient de loin les nouvelles des modélisateurs à ce que Millan leur disait. La dernière chose qu’un politicien veut entendre, c’est que, quel que soit l’endroit où il aménage le terrain, que ce soit pour une école ou une usine, il endommage le climat. Ils préféraient ce que leur proposaient les modélisateurs, à savoir un problème dispersé à l’échelle mondiale pour lequel ils n’avaient aucune responsabilité locale ou régionale spécifique. Tant mieux si cela leur permet de promouvoir la croissance et de faire valoir leurs compétences en matière de création d’emplois. En effet, le cadre de solution qui leur était présenté - l’énergie "verte" - leur permettait non seulement de promouvoir le développement, mais en même temps de se prétendre verts, un rêve devenu réalité pour les politiciens.
Il est important de considérer ici les deux côtés de cet argument scientifique.
D’un côté, nous avons Millan, dont les conclusions sont basées sur dix-huit années de données physiques utilisant plus de 50 tours météorologiques, des ballons aériens, des jauges et des avions instrumentaux. En outre, elles intègrent et s’appuient sur l’expérience vécue par les habitants de la région, en particulier les personnes âgées qui ont observé les changements le plus longtemps. Enfin, elle s’appuie sur un minimum de modélisation informatique. En d’autres termes, elle est empirique, fondée sur des preuves physiques et non sur des équations théoriques, et utilise des méthodes météorologiques standard et éprouvées depuis longtemps. Enfin, elle provient de sa propre patrie que, grâce à son père, il observe d’un œil météorologique depuis qu’il est enfant.
De l’autre côté, vous avez des individus assis derrière des écrans d’ordinateur, dans l’espace sans lieu d’un modèle informatique, qui consultent ce qui n’est en fin de compte qu’une simulation.
Comment en sommes-nous arrivés là ? On peut se poser la question. Comment le climat s’est-il retrouvé dans un ordinateur ? Qu’est-il arrivé à l’approche concernant la terre et pourquoi ne le savons-nous pas ? Et pourquoi n’avons-nous pas le droit de porter nos propres jugements sur "la science" ?
Ces questions nous amènent à la deuxième partie de l’histoire de Millan, le drame scientifique qui se joue derrière elle.
Après avoir entendu Millan parler pour la première fois en 2017, j’ai immédiatement récupéré une copie du rapport du MIT auquel il faisait référence et j’ai confirmé moi-même l’existence d’une compréhension du climat fondée sur deux causes à l’intérieur de ses couvertures. Que s’est-il donc passé ? me suis-je demandé. Comment l’approche du changement climatique a-t-elle disparu de la narration, l’approche du CO2 devenant la seule cause humaine du changement climatique ? En commençant par le rapport MT, j’ai commencé à lire les textes de divers rapports sur le climat, en avançant dans le temps, à la recherche d’indices. Finalement, une image discernable a émergé, montrant comment le changement climatique a été exclu du récit climatique.
L’année clé a été 1979, lorsque deux rapports climatiques très différents ont été publiés.
Le premier rapport a été produit par l’Organisation météorologique mondiale à l’occasion de son premier Congrès mondial sur le climat : Une conférence d’experts sur le climat et l’humanité. Bien qu’utilisant un langage archaïque, le titre montre une tentative scientifique de grande portée et de grande ampleur. Extrait de l’avant-propos : « Cette publication peut être considérée comme l’étude la plus approfondie et la plus complète du climat en relation avec l’humanité jamais publiée. » C’est une affirmation raisonnable pour un rapport contenant 28 documents de synthèse et totalisant plus de 700 pages, qui constitue en quelque sorte un manuel de la pensée scientifique sur le climat à l’époque.
Comme dans le rapport du SMIC, les deux « jambes » sont placées côte à côte, et le discours d’ouverture de la conférence les résume parfaitement : "Nous modifions maintenant les processus radiatifs de l’atmosphère et peut-être sa circulation par l’émission des produits de notre société industrielle et agricole. Nous modifions maintenant les processus de frontière entre la terre et l’atmosphère par notre utilisation des sols".
La section suivante du rapport, intitulée "Influences de l’homme sur le système climatique", comprend un document coécrit par nul autre que Ted Munn. L’article de Munn, intitulé "Human Activities that Affect Climate", commence ainsi : "L’humanité modifie l’environnement depuis plusieurs milliers d’années et certaines de ces modifications affectent le climat. Par exemple, chaque fois qu’une forêt est déboisée ou qu’une route est construite, les bilans thermiques et hydriques locaux sont modifiés". Il poursuit en exposant, comme dans le livre du MIT publié huit ans plus tôt, ce qui est clairement une approche à deux volets. "Le sujet de ce document est manifestement très vaste et est donc présenté en deux parties principales, comme suit : La première partie, par Munn, couvre les principaux impacts humains sur le climat, à l’exclusion de l’interférence de l’homme dans l’équilibre du dioxyde de carbone (C02) dans l’atmosphère ; et la deuxième partie, par Machta (son co-auteur), traite de manière exhaustive des aspects du changement climatique qui sont liés à l’équilibre du dioxyde de carbone".
Les deux fondements du changement climatique sont là, bien visibles. Il fait ensuite une observation surprenante concernant le rôle de la terre dans le climat : nous ne disposons d’aucune base, d’aucun "état de référence avec lequel comparer les conditions actuelles". En d’autres termes, nous avons tellement "changé" la surface de la terre que nous ne savons même pas comment nos climats sont censés fonctionner, quel serait ou devrait être leur état naturel. C’est une question qui a des implications très variées selon l’endroit où l’on vit.
Pour moi, ici dans le nord-ouest du Pacifique, cela signifie comparer un régime climatique dans lequel l’hydrologie régionale était autrefois alimentée par des géants de huit pieds d’épaisseur et de trois cents pieds de haut répartis de la mer à la montagne, à la mosaïque de coupes à blanc et de plantations d’arbres, coupées selon des rotations de quarante ans, qui se font actuellement passer pour des forêts dans cette région, en particulier dans les basses terres critiques sur le plan hydrologique. Cela signifie qu’il faut reconnaître que la plupart des marais côtiers et des estuaires, ainsi que leur fonction hydrologique, ont été recouverts d’autoroutes, d’extensions urbaines et suburbaines et d’une agriculture industrielle qui détruit les sols. Cela signifie qu’en plus du réchauffement général de la planète dû aux émissions de gaz à effet de serre, nous devons également prendre en compte la manière dont ces transformations foncières contribuent à la dessiccation et au réchauffement de nos forêts locales et régionales.
Ici, dans le nord-ouest, nous avons de la chance. Malgré ce que nous avons fait au paysage, notre proximité particulière avec l’océan Pacifique signifie que son approvisionnement régulier en humidité se poursuit quand même, ce qui permet de garder les choses vertes, du moins en apparence. D’autres régions sont confrontées à des circonstances très différentes, en particulier celles qui dépendent de leurs sols et de leur végétation pour maintenir leur humidité. Ces endroits, comme le bassin méditerranéen occidental, sont confrontés à des circonstances plus difficiles.
L’un des articles les plus intéressants du rapport concerne le changement climatique au Sahara. Bien que le changement climatique ait été présenté comme un phénomène moderne de l’ère pétrolière, les auteurs, Julius S. Oguntoyinbo et Richard S. Odingo, scientifiques kenyans et soudanais, remontent un peu plus loin, entre 6 000 et 4 700 ans, lorsque "le Sahara connaissait un climat plus humide". "La dessiccation du climat a probablement commencé bien avant 4700 ans avant notre ère, mais l’impact a apparemment été retardé en raison de nappes phréatiques plus élevées et d’oasis étendues. Ces sites constituaient des habitats adéquats pour la faune, les animaux domestiques, les êtres humains et leurs cultures."
Bien qu’une certaine forme de modification des terres par l’agriculture et l’élevage ait déjà été présente dans la région, peut-être depuis des milliers d’années, les auteurs suggèrent que la région, en raison de ses vastes oasis et aquifères, était suffisamment résiliente sur le plan écologique pour la tolérer, mais seulement jusqu’à un certain point. La modification du paysage par l’homme aurait pu faire pencher la balance, ce que des recherches ultérieures ont corroboré. "La période comprise entre 4700 et 3700 avant notre ère était aride", notent-ils, "la région devenant successivement plus sèche, en particulier pendant l’occupation romaine, et à une époque plus récente".
Il est intéressant de noter l’occupation romaine. Si l’on se fie à l’expérience du bassin méditerranéen occidental, cette période aurait été marquée par une intensification de l’utilisation des terres, avec l’assèchement des marais, l’exploitation minière des collines et l’abattage des forêts. Et comme on l’a vu, l’époque était plus sèche.
La référence aux "temps plus récents" est encore plus intéressante. Après avoir noté que les peuples traditionnels de la région - les nomades touaregs, les agriculteurs haussas et les pasteurs peuls - "avaient développé des systèmes sociaux, économiques, politiques et d’utilisation des terres qui leur permettaient de survivre dans le cadre des contraintes imposées par l’environnement de la région", ils décrivent comment "la colonisation européenne a introduit et imposé toute une série de changements sociaux et économiques qui ont perturbé les relations symbiotiques qui s’étaient développées entre les groupes socio-économiques de la région". Parmi les mesures introduites, on peut citer l’encouragement des pasteurs à mener une vie sédentaire et l’introduction de l’économie de rente. L’expansion des zones cultivées s’est faite au détriment des pâturages situés plus au sud et donc mieux arrosés ; les terres en jachère ont été réduites, tandis qu’une grande partie du bushland, qui faisait traditionnellement partie des pâturages des pasteurs, a été incorporée à la zone agricole".
Aujourd’hui, le discours sur le climat attribue généralement les sécheresses sahariennes aux émissions de CO2, mais ces auteurs ont clairement mis l’accent sur l’utilisation des terres, soulignant le "surpâturage des déserts et de leurs marges" et "le refoulement des nomades de certaines parties des steppes (entraînant) la dégradation de la couverture végétale clairsemée des semi-déserts environnants, d’une part, et la perturbation de l’équilibre écologique des steppes cultivées, d’autre part". Le labourage des sols secs, en particulier, a également eu de graves conséquences".
Il y aurait beaucoup à dire sur le rapport de l’OMM, et il convient de noter qu’il consacre également une attention considérable aux émissions de carbone, y compris un document d’ensemble sur la base physique, détaillant ce qu’elle est et comment elle fonctionne. Mais il y a un autre rapport à prendre en considération, un rapport qui a suivi peu de temps après et qui s’est avéré bien plus important pour la trajectoire de la science du climat. Il s’agit de Carbon Dioxide and Climate : A Scientific Assessment, également connu sous le nom de "rapport Charney".
Jules Charney est le brillant mathématicien à qui l’on doit l’entrée des prévisions météorologiques dans l’ère de l’informatique, en élaborant les mathématiques qui sous-tendent la modélisation informatique qui a révolutionné les prévisions météorologiques modernes. Les calculs qui auraient autrefois nécessité des stades remplis de mathématiciens pouvaient être effectués par des ordinateurs de plus en plus sophistiqués. Jules Charney a joué le rôle d’entremetteur, augmentant considérablement la capacité des prévisions météorologiques et jetant les bases des simulations informatiques fluides que nous considérons aujourd’hui comme allant de soi dans le bulletin météorologique du soir.
Au milieu des années 1970, l’augmentation des émissions de CO2 a attiré l’attention de l’Office of Science and Technology Policy des États-Unis, qui a demandé officiellement au National Research Council (NRC) - une institution centenaire privée et non partisane créée par le Congrès pour servir de "conseiller scientifique à la nation" - de se pencher sur la question. Le NRC a transmis la demande à son groupe interne de recherche sur le climat, qui a mis sur pied un groupe d’étude ad hoc composé de scientifiques et dirigé par Jules Charney. Le groupe ad hoc s’est installé à Woods Hole, dans le Massachusetts, et a commencé à passer en revue toutes les modélisations sur le CO2 réalisées à ce jour, en réévaluant les points faibles et en établissant une certaine moyenne des résultats. Il en est résulté un mince rapport de 22 pages, qui se rapproche le plus d’une déclaration définitive sur le CO2. Contrairement au rapport de l’OMM, qui, bien que très complet, n’offrait aucune prédiction claire concernant le CO2, si ce n’est la nécessité de poursuivre les recherches, ce rapport est ce qui se rapproche le plus d’une prédiction ferme. Selon ce rapport, si les concentrations de CO2 doublent, les températures mondiales augmenteront de 3 degrés centigrades.
C’était une bombe. Les médias disposaient d’un titre qui attirait l’attention et s’en sont emparés, les intérêts pétroliers et les écologistes s’alignant de part et d’autre de la conclusion, les uns attaquant, les autres défendant. En conséquence, une sorte de boucle de rétroaction sociale s’est mise en place. Plus le CO2 était nié comme cause du changement climatique, plus ses défenseurs le déclaraient, cimentant ainsi le sentiment du public que les gaz de carbone étaient la seule cause du changement climatique. Soudain, l’approche du CO2 s’est retrouvée sous les feux de la rampe, tandis que l’approche du changement climatique était cachée dans l’ombre, perdue dans le tumulte.
Charney et ses associés avaient-ils l’intention de présenter le CO2 comme la seule cause du changement climatique ? Probablement pas. Ils soulignent dans leur résumé et leurs conclusions que "nous avons limité nos considérations aux effets climatiques directs de l’augmentation constante des concentrations de CO2". Comme la plupart des scientifiques, ils ont compris que le climat ne se résume pas au CO2, mais ils se sont sentis en confiance, malgré la complexité du sujet, pour faire leur prédiction, "toutes choses égales par ailleurs".
C’est dans ce "toutes choses égales par ailleurs" que les choses se compliquent. En effet, dans "toutes choses égales par ailleurs", il y a l’approche terrestre et les processus vivants qui l’entourent, bien trop complexes à l’époque pour être modélisés. Pourtant, une tentative de prévision des effets possibles de l’augmentation des concentrations de CO2 était clairement nécessaire, et attendre que toutes les incertitudes soient levées avant d’affronter le problème du CO2 signifierait probablement attendre qu’il soit trop tard pour faire quoi que ce soit à ce sujet. En outre, la mise de côté des incertitudes est une pratique courante dans la modélisation informatique, et elle peut aller dans les deux sens. Par exemple, lorsqu’il tente de modéliser les effets du changement climatique, un modélisateur peut exclure les effets du CO2 pour obtenir une image plus claire. Cette pratique fait partie du processus de modélisation et ne doit pas être considérée comme malhonnête. Toutefois, cela nécessite un certain nombre d’explications, que le rapport Charney n’a pas fournies et qui n’ont pas été fournies depuis.
Quoi qu’il en soit, on peut imaginer la situation de l’OMM et des autres organisations internationales. Les Américains avaient fait une déclaration forte sur le CO2, alors qu’ils étaient loin d’un tel consensus scientifique. L’étendue de leur analyse, dont ils étaient si fiers, est soudain devenue un handicap. Le train du CO2 était sorti de la gare et ils étaient encore en train de trier les bagages de diverses incertitudes, souvent liées au changement des terres. Que faire ?
Lors d’une série d’ateliers et de conférences organisés entre 1980 et 1988, les principales organisations climatiques internationales, telles que l’OMM (Organisation Météorologique Mondiale), le PNUE (Programme des Nations unies pour l’environnement) et l’ICSU (Société Internationale des Unions Scientifiques), ont tenté de lever leurs incertitudes concernant la jambe de CO2 et d’articuler leur propre consensus. Entre-temps, une structure organisationnelle pour la coopération climatique internationale était nécessaire, et deux organisations ont été créées.
L’un d’entre eux nous est familier : le Groupe d’experts intergouvernemental sur l’évolution du climat (GIEC). L’autre, le Programme international sur la géosphère et la biosphère (PIGB), n’est pratiquement connu de personne. L’approche terrestre, avec tous ses processus complexes et difficiles à modéliser, y a été classée, mais dans un contexte de langage différent. Plutôt que de traiter du "changement climatique", les travaux de ce groupe ont été qualifiés de "changement global". En outre, il a reçu un dixième du financement du GIEC, a été largement ignoré par la presse spécialisée dans le climat et, en 2015, a été fermé, transformé en une organisation privée appelée Future Earth.
Qu’est-il advenu de l’approche bipolaire du climat ? C’est très simple. La jambe terrestre s’est avérée "incommodante", comme le dit Millan, et les deux jambes ont donc été séparées. La jambe CO2, défendue par le GIEC, est entrée sous les feux de la rampe pour sauver l’humanité, tandis que la jambe changement climatique, hébergée par le PIGB, est restée en retrait pour poursuivre des recherches ayant vaguement trait au "changement planétaire", du moins pendant un certain temps.
Pendant que ces machinations se déroulaient, M. Millan était à l’écart. Il avait fort à faire avec la pollution grave dans les villes côtières et les vallées de la Méditerranée, puis avec le mystère des orages d’été qui s’effondrent. Il n’était pas du tout au courant de ce qui se passait dans le domaine de la science du climat. Sa rencontre s’est plutôt faite aux deux extrémités opposées du processus. Il était là au début, lorsque la science moderne a commencé ses premières grandes enquêtes sur l’impact de l’homme sur le climat, illustrées par le rapport du MIT et de l’Académie suédoise des sciences, où il a repris le concept des deux jambes qui lui avait si bien servi en Méditerranée. Puis, en 1995, lorsqu’il a commencé à partager ses résultats, il s’est retrouvé à l’autre bout du processus, après que les deux approches aient été administrativement séparées et que le CO2 soit devenu la cause officielle du changement climatique, la terre et la végétation étant rétrogradées au rang de puits de carbone et d’agent d’atténuation.
Le caractère convaincant ou important de ses observations n’a pas vraiment d’importance. Le discours était déjà établi. Le CO2 comme cause. Les modèles de circulation globale comme oculaires. La physique (les mathématiques) comme base. Il avait des soutiens occasionnels au sein de la Commission européenne, et je suis sûr que de nombreuses personnes ont hoché la tête lors de ses présentations, mais l’architecture scientifique et politique ne pouvait plus s’adapter à ses idées. C’était comme s’il apportait une réponse ronde à une question carrée.
Comme on pouvait s’y attendre, la bataille a été longue et frustrante pour Millan. Et décourageante. "J’ai perdu", m’a-t-il écrit un jour, "pour nous tous". Il connaît bien les implications de son travail dans le monde entier, l’ampleur du bien qu’il pourrait faire, mais c’est dans son pays d’origine qu’il le ressent le plus vivement. Pour Millan, la satisfaction d’avoir résolu le mystère de l’orage d’été s’accompagne de la tristesse de connaître l’état réel de son environnement, ce qu’il devrait être, ce qu’il pourrait être et ce vers quoi il se dirige. Ce que Millan craint le plus, ce sont les retours d’information. Chaque orage d’été non réalisé, chaque échec du système à éjecter sa chaleur et à libérer son eau pour la vie en dessous, non seulement diminue cette vie, mais conduit à des orages plus puissants en automne, en hiver et au printemps. Ces tempêtes érodent ensuite davantage ce qui reste de la terre, approfondissant le cycle, tandis que la terre se rapproche de plus en plus du seuil critique à partir duquel elle s’effondre en désert.
J’essaie parfois d’imaginer à quel point les choses auraient pu être différentes si les deux conceptions du climat n’avaient pas été séparées. Il est difficile d’imaginer que les émissions de CO2 soient plus élevées. Malgré la focalisation sur le problème du CO2, les émissions ont augmenté de près de 20 % depuis la création du GIEC en 1988. Pendant cette période, combien d’écosystèmes ont été détruits alors qu’ils auraient pu être sauvés s’ils avaient été considérés dans toute leur importance hydrologique ? Combien de sols ont été recouverts de béton ou érodés par l’exploitation des terres sans que personne ne se rende compte des conséquences climatiques ? Combien de terres auraient été protégées, et combien restaurées, si le public avait su à quel point leurs paysages locaux et régionaux sont essentiels à leur propre climat ? À un moment donné, Millan disposait de 100 millions d’euros de financement communautaire pour les efforts de restauration des terres, mais il n’a trouvé aucun preneur.
Aujourd’hui, le garçon, dont le père lui a littéralement indiqué son destin et qui, comme nous l’avons vu, l’a accompli avec un tel élan scientifique, se sent vaincu. Un jour, alors que nous communiquions sur la mort de Ted Munn en 2013, il a écrit : "Je viens de réaliser que je suis peut-être le dernier représentant vivant de la théorie bipède du climat". Mais l’histoire n’est pas terminée. Comme nous l’avons mentionné, la compréhension scientifique du climat de la Terre se rapproche de celle de M. Millan, au lieu de s’en éloigner. Déjà, le terme biophysique (le concept des deux jambes en un seul mot) devient courant dans la littérature scientifique. Les scientifiques, quant à eux, sont de plus en plus pointus dans leurs analyses. Le World Resources Institute, par exemple, a récemment publié un rapport déclarant que, en ce qui concerne "les effets de la déforestation autres que le carbone, la direction et l’ampleur de ces impacts sont suffisamment claires pour mériter une action urgente dès maintenant". Le titre de ce rapport est le suivant : "Not Just Carbon, Capturing All of Carbon : Not Just Carbon, Capturing All the Benefits of Forests for Stabilizing the Climate from Local to Global Scales" (Pas seulement le carbone, capturer tous les avantages des forêts pour stabiliser le climat, de l’échelle locale à l’échelle mondiale). C’est nous qui soulignons.
Pendant ce temps, les scientifiques et les citoyens unissent leurs forces et tracent des voies qui vont au-delà de l’histoire du CO2 uniquement. Des organisations telles que Climate Landscapes organisent des conférences pour rassembler les scientifiques, les citoyens et les journalistes autour de la perspective hydrologique et paysagère. Des organisations de citoyens, comme Biodiversity for a Livable Climate, compilent et synthétisent la littérature scientifique et proposent des cours au grand public, qui apprend la science par lui-même. Millan n’a peut-être pas réussi à modifier le cours de la bureaucratie scientifique, mais il a réussi à inspirer un nouveau récit sur le climat, qui n’en est encore qu’à ses débuts.
Personnellement, c’est l’élégance de son concept à deux jambes et la poésie de l’eau qui engendre l’eau, du sol qui est la matrice, de la végétation qui est la sage-femme, qui m’ont attiré dans cette exploration. Et dans mes moments d’espoir, je pense que nous pourrions bien être à l’aube d’un nouveau mouvement, que si je devais lui donner un nom, j’appellerais le mouvement pour un climat vivant.
Sources :
Millan, Millan et al, 2005, Climatic Feedbacks and Desertification : The Mediterranean Model, Journal of Climate, Volume 18, pp. 684-70.
Millan, Millan, 2014, Extreme Meteorological Events and Climate Prediction in Europe, Journal of Hydrology, Volume 518, pp.206-224.
Pielke, Roger Sr, 2009, Changement climatique : The Need to Consider Human Forcings Besides Greenhouse Gases, Eos, Vol. 90, No. 45, pp. 413-414.
Schwarzer, Stefan, 2021, Working with Plants, Soils and Water to Cool the Climate and Rehydrate Earth’s Landscapes, UNEP Foresight Brief, pp. 1-7.
1971, Inadvertent Climate Modification : Study of Man’s Impact on Climate, MIT.
1979, Actes de la Conférence mondiale sur le climat : Conférence d’experts sur le climat et l’humanité, Association météorologique mondiale.
Crédit photo pour l’accroche : By self - Own work, CC BY-SA 3.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=181723. Maquis bas en Corse.
Rob Lewis – auteur
Rob Lewis est un poète, un écrivain et un activiste qui s’efforce de donner une voix au monde plus qu’humain. Ses écrits ont été publiés dans Resilience, Dark Mountain, Atlanta Review, Counterflow et d’autres, ainsi que dans les anthologies Singing the Salmon Home et For the Love of Orcas. Il est également l’auteur du recueil de poèmes et d’essais The Silence of Vanishing Things. Dernièrement, il a écrit sur le fait que le climat n’est pas une machine à laquelle on peut apporter une solution technique, mais un système vivant qui ne peut être guéri que par la restriction et la restauration, à l’adresse https://theclimateaccordingtolife.substack.com/.
Notes :
(1) : Ce texte est essentiellement issu du texte de Rob Lewis ; il a entendu Millán parler pour la première fois en 2017 et a recherché ensuite les données sur ses travaux. J’ai copié le texte de Rob Lewis en fin d’article, après avoir mentionné la conférence de Rio de 1982 et ses conséquences, dont Rob Lewis ne parle pas.
(2) : Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Pour comprendre rapidement ces dynamiques complémentaires, le
documentaire « Dobra Voda » (https://youtu.be/18sT3U9T-mw) offre depuis
2015 une synthèse des différentes causes du changement climatique. En se
basant dès 2013 sur le New Water Paradigm de l’hydrologue Michal Kravcik
(illustré aussi dans le film), sa réalisatrice Valérie Valette a compris
que l’effet de serre « est l’élément le plus simple à quantifier
scientifiquement mais (qu’)il fonctionne en synergie avec d’autres
mécanismes dans la dynamique du changement climatique ». Ce qui concorde
avec l’analyse et le témoignage du Dr Millán M. Millán.
https://filmfreeway.com/ValerieVALETTE
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